Thursday, January 17, 2013

Natural Gas Hits a New High for This Move on Storage Report

That initial spike to $3.52 is the highest for this contract since it became the front future.
Here's today's action from FinViz:


The headline at StreetInsider is "Natural Gas Bears in Full Retreat (UNG)" which may be a tad exuberant.

The sentiment from Monday's "Natural Gas: Baby It's (Gonna Be) Cold Outside" is still operative through the weekend, maybe to mid week, but then being long gets tricky. It's all good though as we have The Widowmaker to look forward to:
(okay, the Widowmaker term originally came from the March-April calendar spread where the premium/discount can swing 20% based on a couple weather rumors and you might see several swings from backwardation to contango and back in a week.. Now it is used to refer to the whole darn curve and any point on it)
From the EIA:

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
...Summary
Working gas in storage was 3,168 Bcf as of Friday, January 11, 2013, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 148 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 147 Bcf less than last year at this time and 316 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,852 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 92 Bcf above the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 86 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 156 Bcf above the 5-year average of 957 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 39 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 68 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 23 Bcf. At 3,168 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range....MORE
Finally, from Bloomberg:

Natural Gas Jumps to One-Month High on Above-Average Supply Drop
Natural gas futures jumped to the highest price in more than a month after a government report showed a bigger-than-forecast U.S. stockpile decline.

Gas rose as much as 2.5 percent, reversing a 1.6 percent drop, after the Energy Information Administration said stockpiles fell 148 billion cubic feet last week to 3.168 trillion. Analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg showed an expected decrease of 139 billion.

“It’s a supportive report,” said Stephen Schork, president of Schork Group Inc., a consulting group in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “The current weather and weather forecasts for key gas-consuming areas for the weeks ahead are supportive of prices."...MORE