"No typo: Analyst sets Nikkei 63 million target" (it's Société Générale's Dylan Grice)

Sometimes investing is easy.
This is a repost from October 15, 2010:

UPDATE below.
That would imply some upside wouldn't it. From MarketWatch:

Japan may be headed on the inflationary path that Israel once took, leading one controversial analyst to slap a 15-year price target of 63 million on Japan’s main stock-market index.
The Nikkei 225 (JP:NI225 9,500, -83.26, -0.87%)  stood at 9,500 Friday.

Dylan Grice, a London-based analyst with Societe Generale, isn’t the first to fret about Japan’s debt levels. But he also says the country’s population will accept inflation before cuts in health spending.

“It is often pointed out that in Japan’s aging population, there is no constituency for inflation, which is why there is insufficient pressure on the Bank of Japan to monetize,” he said in a note to clients arguing for the huge jump in the Nikkei.

“However, the same demographic dynamic ensures there is no political constituency for reductions in health expenditures. Yet Japan’s tax revenues currently don’t even cover debt service and social security, persistent and growing fiscal burdens,” he wrote. “Therefore, once the [Bank of Japan] is forced into monetization of government deficits, even if only with the initial intention of stabilizing government finances in the short term, it will prove difficult to stop.”

While democracies typically don’t breed hyperinflation, there is one example, he noted: Israel. That country saw inflation in the 1970s explode into hyperinflation by the mid-1980s....MORE

UPDATE:
More on "Nikkei 63,000,000"

That update is worth a click.

The closest we've gotten to that kind of exuberance was our Dec. 17, 2012 story "Japan's Nikkei is In the Early Stages of an Historic Move". We had the benefit of a five consecutive week uptrend BEFORE our call.

Here's the action in the Nikkei over the last 30 days via Google Finance:

You'll note that in the 2+ years since Mr. Grice made his projection the Nikkei ended at around the same level it had been at in 2010.

And that within days of our somewhat more muted headline the Japanese market had a 2% downturn.
Sometimes it's the timing that's tricky. .
But that's all behind us now, here's the latest.
First up the Wall Street Journal:
Longest Nikkei Bull-Run Since 1988

Japanese stocks ended higher for the ninth consecutive week, the market's longest consecutive weekly climb since in 1988, as the yen weakened after Japan announced a larger-than-expected trade deficit, while Chinese stocks dropped after a pick-up in inflation.

The U.S. dollar rose as high as Y89.35, its highest level against the yen since June 2010. The dollar was at Y88.92 late in Asian trade, compared with Y88.78 late Thursday in New York—adding to the greenback's 1.0% overnight gain.

The yen weakened after Japan announced that its current account fell into a deficit of ¥222.4 billion in November, much wider than the ¥33.5 billion shortfall forecast by economists.
The weaker yen translated into another day of gains for Japanese stocks, with the Nikkei Stock Average advancing 1.4% to 10,801.57, breaking above 10,800 for the first time since late February 2011. Exporters were higher: Mazda Motor Corp. 7261.TO +4.62% was up 4.6%, and Nikon Corp. 7731.TO +3.34% rose 3.3%.

In addition, the Japanese government approved a ¥10.3 trillion economic stimulus package designed to support the domestic economy, which includes spending on public works. The government also said that it would strengthen its ties with the Bank of Japan....MORE

 And from CNBC yesterday, before this morning's 1.4% pop:
 Nikkei's Stunning Rally—Why It’s Time to Be Cautious 

Japan's stock market has had a blistering run,climbing 20 percent in less than two months on a weakening yen and expectations of aggressive monetary easing. Further gains now come down to the new government and whether it can come true on its pledge to revive an economy in recession, analysts said.

"I think we have got a little bit ahead of ourselves in the Japan markets, because so far all we've seen is expressions of hope and little specific going on," Mikio Kumada, executive director at LGT Capital Partners told CNBC Asia's "Squawk Box" on Thursday. "It (further gains) really depends on how much (Prime Minister Shinzo) Abe and the new government delivers on election promises."...MORE

Timing can be tough.

A couple characteristics of big bull markets:

1) Once the move is underway waiting for a pullback almost guarantees you will be underinvested. Everybody is waiting for a pullback, not everybody has the fearlessness/foolishness to committ.

2) The market will find a way to make your day-to-day prognostications and pronouncements look stupid.

Ease in, even if you have to grit your teeth and shut your eyes.
Sixty three million baby!