Thursday, April 3, 2014

5 Things to Watch For in Tomorrow's March Jobs Report

From the WSJ's 5 Things blog:
The Labor Department’s March jobs report on Friday is expected to show a pick-up in hiring, a welcome sign following a mid-winter lull. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast the economy added 200,000 jobs last month, up from 175,000 in February and much better than December’s meager gain of 84,000. The unemployment rate is expected to return to 6.6% after ticking up to 6.7% in February. Other recent indicators suggest the economy is thawing, though consumers and businesses remain cautious.
Beyond headline numbers, here are five things to watch on Friday.

1 Record breaking?
Total private employment reached 115,848,000 in February, close to the seasonally adjusted record of 115,977,000 from January 2008. If the private sector added more than 129,000 payroll jobs in March, the U.S. will be back to its peak level of private-sector employment. Of course, a lot has changed since the prior peak. State local and federal governments have shed more than half a million jobs, leaving total employment still shy of its all-time high. The population is bigger: The civilian labor force has expanded by 1.6 million since then. And the mix of private-sector jobs has changed. For example, more people work in temp and health care jobs, while fewer are in construction and manufacturing.
2 Squalls and snow days
It’s not clear if bad weather put a chill on hiring in the latest jobs report. In February, it kept people from getting to work, at least for a few days. The result: The average workweek slipped by 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours in February, the lowest level since January 2011. Fewer hours mean less take-home pay for many, translating into weaker consumer demand and slower economic growth. The wintry mix continued to hit parts of the country in March but the effect shouldn’t be as bad as earlier in the winter. “Even a partial reversal of the weather distortion should generate a rebound in average weekly hours worked, which have slumped from 34.5 last November,” said Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics....MORE