Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Hurricane Watch--Questions America Wants Answered: "Which Intensity Model Should You Trust for Tropical Storm Arthur?"

From Wunderblog:
The Atlantic's first storm of 2014 is here, as Tropical Storm Arthur was named at 11 am EDT Tuesday by NHC. Arthur's formation date of July 1 comes a week before the typical July 8 appearance of the Atlantic's first named storm, but is the latest the first named storm of the season has appeared since 2009, when Tropical Storm Ana formed on August 12.

Figure 1. Melbourne, Florida radar image of Tropical Storm Arthur at 2:20 pm EDT July 1, 2014.
Arthur was drifting northwest at 5 mph towards the east coast of Central Florida early Tuesday afternoon. Long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida on Tuesday afternoon showed that bands of heavy rain from Arthur were affecting the Northwest Bahamas, and the top sustained winds observed in the Bahamas as of 2 pm EDT Tuesday were 36 mph, gusting to 41 mph at Settlement Point in the Northwest Bahama Islands at 8 am EDT. Top winds Tuesday morning and early afternoon at the buoy 23 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida were 22 mph, gusting to 26 mph, with a significant wave height of 4.3'....MUCH MORE
Here's the Cone of Uncertainty: