Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Buy Zinc

The headline has become a running gag since April 2008's "Buy Tin". I reposted it in mid-Oct. 2012 as the metal was coming down from an intermediate term peak: "Buy Zinc" (but not yet)
That was the cryptic message from a reformed metals trader this afternoon. No rationale, no investment thesis, just "buy tin".

I couldn't help thinking of the Barney Miller episode "Child Stealers".
Time traveler "Adam Boyer" comes back from 2057 and is hounded by Harris for stock tips:
[Harris, acting on a tip from a "twinkie" claiming to be a Sociology Professor from Columbia University who's traveled back in time from the year 2057 (played by the great character actor Richard Libertini), calls his broker to transfer his assets from gold bullion to the financial standard of the future--Zinc!!]:

"...no, no blue chips, either...I was thinking about Zinc! (pause) Yeah, Zinc! What's it goin for these days? (writing the figure on a notepad)...Thirty seven and a half cents---a POUND?? (The "Professor" gives Harris an encouraging nod)...Yeah, well, I might be willin' to spring for a coupla TONS!"...
The episode aired in January 1980 so at $.8580, zinc didn't do so hot (but actually better than gold, which hit $850 that same month). The reformed metals trader worked for one of the discrete, some might say secretive  Swiss-based physical commodities traders.
He had up to $50 mil. discretion to buy Russian copper cathodes or aluminum or whatever, figure out the logistics, rail, shipping, bribe the right port authorities etc. Pretty much end-to-end, turnkey, whatever you wanted to call it.
So when he called, I listened. And started laughing. I couldn't get that damned Barney Miller scene out of my head....
And today's (actually yesterday's) story from Bloomberg:

Aluminum Bulls Increase Wagers as Funds’ Favorite Is Zinc
Hedge funds and other speculators increased their bullish bets on aluminum with prices climbing to a 17-month high today amid forecasts for a shortage.

The net-long position in aluminum rose to 146,418 futures and options by Aug. 8 from 141,277 contracts a week earlier, the London Metal Exchange said in its second weekly Commitment of Traders report. Zinc has the highest share of money manager bets on higher prices at 28 percent of open interest compared with 25 percent for aluminum and 22 percent for copper.

Aluminum climbed 14 percent this year and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is forecasting a shortage of 579,000 metric tons. Stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the LME fell 10 percent this year to the lowest since 2012. Premiums buyers in Europe, U.S. and Asia pay to obtain the metal rose to records.

“The high premiums of physical aluminum in the U.S., South Korea and Japan tell you a bullish story,” said Richard Fu, director of Asian commodity trading at Newedge Group SA in London. “On top of the U.S. recovery and good Chinese economic data, low stock levels, tight supply in the market outside of China, geopolitical uncertainties from Ukraine/Russia situation are all positive for aluminum prices.”...MORE
And from Kitco:

Kitco spot $1.0326 down 2.44 cents.
And, if you care, as of August 13 2014 11:11:24 AM PT, Abe Vigoda is alive.

See also June's "Zinc-Lead Mining Companies Listed in All Countries".