Monday, September 15, 2014

Did Hurricane Odile Just Trigger the MultiCat Mexico 2012 Cat Bond?

Major storm Odile visited Cabo this morning.
From Artemis:
Hurricane Odile made landfall in southern Baja California Sur, near Cabo San Lucas as a major storm with winds of 125mph and more importantly for catastrophe bond investors a minimum central pressure of 930mb, according to the NOAA.

We say more important as it looks to us, note we’re not risk modellers or actuaries, as if the landfall may have been at the right intensity and in the correct location to trigger the Class C tranche of notes of the World Bank arrange MultiCat Mexico Ltd. (Series 2012-1) catastrophe bond.

The Class C notes require a hurricane with a minimum central pressure of a certain value to pass within a parametric zone, essentially an area drawn onto a map of Mexico.

In the case of the Class C notes it is possible for the cat bond to pay out either 50% of principal or 100%, depending on how intense the storm is as defined by how low its central pressure is. In this case it looks like investors may be at risk of losing 50% of their principal from the $100m tranche of MultiCat Mexico notes, as the central pressure appears to have been at the right level for such a loss to occur....MORE
And from Wunderblog:
Category 3 Odile the Strongest Hurricane on Record to Hit Baja
Destructive Hurricane Odile powered ashore at Cabo San Lucas on Mexico's Baja Peninsula near 12:45 am EDT Monday as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Odile was the strongest hurricane on record to hit the Baja Peninsula, tied with Hurricane Olivia of 1967. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was in Odile Sunday afternoon, and measured a surface pressure of 922 mb. This pressure puts Odile in pretty select company--only two other Eastern Pacific hurricanes have had lower pressures measured in them by the Hurricane Hunters (though a total of eleven Eastern Pacific hurricanes have had lower pressures, if we include satellite-estimated pressures.)... 
...MORE 
Recently:
Hurricane Odile Hits Category 4 and "2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion"

It appears the American Southwest is going to be getting a lot of rain, no help for California but a positive for the region: