Wednesday, February 11, 2015

"Why Rig Cuts Won't Save Oil: Goldman"

Long time readers know this stuff and should feel free to skip to the video below on "8 Signs of Addiction".
For the rest of us, there is a reason we strive to be the go-to venue for such can't-put-it-down material as Monday's "EIA Drilling Productivity Report: Production Per Rig Up Across the Most Prolific Shale Plays"

It's either that or cat videos.

$49.88 down 14 cents after trading as low as $49.43.

From CNBC:
The sharp drop in U.S. oil rig counts has helped lift crude prices off their lows, but it won't slow production or alleviate oversupply, Goldman Sachs said.

"The decline in the U.S. rig count likely remains well short of the level required to slow U.S. shale oil production to levels consistent with a balanced global market," Goldman said in a note Tuesday. "Lower oil prices will be required over the coming quarters to see the U.S. production growth slowdown materialize." 
It estimates the current rig count will bring production growth from the Big-three shale basins -- Permian, Eagle Ford and Bakken -- to 615,000 barrels a day in the fourth quarter of this year, while continued productivity growth may push that as high as 690,000 barrels a day.

Which, not how many
It's about which rigs are getting cut. U.S. crude production was estimated at around 8.6 million barrels a day in 2014, according to data from the International Energy Agency.

"High-grading," with producers eliminating the least efficient rigs first, will also keep production humming along, it said, estimating the Big-three plays would need to cut their horizontal rig count by another 30 percent to 407 by the fourth quarter to bring production growth to 400,000 barrels a day by then....MORE


See also:
"Oil rebound falters as IEA hints at record-high stocks"
Astenbeck Capital's Andrew Hall: Oil Is Going To $65 And The Surviving Shale Plays Will Do Just Fine
The Failure Of The FTSE To Trade Higher Could Foreshadow The Return Of The Plague To Britain