Monday, April 6, 2015

"Record Gasoline Output to Curb Biggest U.S. Oil Glut in 85 Years"

May WTI $50.19 up $1.05.

Although the U.S. does not export a lot of crude it does export finished gasoline to Latin America and diesel to Europe. In December, American refiners exported a record for any month, 21.06 million bbls of gasoline and in January 2015 set a record for that month at 16.94 million barrels.

From Bloomberg:
Refiners are poised to make gasoline at a record pace this year, keeping the biggest U.S. crude glut in more than 80 years from overflowing storage.

They’re enjoying the best margins in two years as they finish seasonal maintenance of their plants before the summer driving season. They’ll increase output to meet consumer demand and they’ve added more than 100,000 barrels a day of capacity since last summer, when they processed the most oil on record.

Booming crude production expanded inventories this year by 86 million barrels to 471 million, the highest level since 1930. Analysts from Bank of America Corp. to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have said storage space may run out. What looks like an oversupply to banks is turning into an all-you-can-eat buffet for those making gasoline and diesel fuel.

“A lot of the excess crude we’ve been sitting on is going to get chewed up quickly,” Sam Davis, an analyst for energy consulting company Wood Mackenzie Ltd., said in Houston April 2. “We’re going to move from a stock build to a stock draw.”

Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have said storage builds are increasing the risk of breaching storage capacity, sending prices tumbling. West Texas Intermediate oil, the U.S. benchmark, already has lost more than half its value since June as growing U.S. shale production led to a global oversupply. WTI for May delivery added $1.17 to $50.31 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 7:56 a.m. local time.

Supply Growth
Inventories surged as U.S. output rose 71 percent over the past five years as drillers used techniques like horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing to tap previously inaccessible oil in shale rock layers. In Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI futures, supplies have more than tripled since early October to a record 58.9 million barrels.

Last July, refiners processed 16.5 million barrels of crude a day, the highest level in monthly Energy Department data going back to 1961. Refining margins in March have averaged $28.09 a barrel, the most since March 2013.

Refiners typically schedule maintenance shutdowns in the spring and fall, reducing oil demand during that time. U.S. refiners increased crude runs by an average 1.1 million barrels a day in April through July over the past five years. During that period, U.S. crude inventories have fallen an average of 24.7 million barrels from the end of May through September....MORE
See also March 9's "...Refining Margins Boom as Crude Inventory Hits the Roof" and Feb. 27's "The Brent/WTI Spread Makes Saudi Arabia Smile".